Tournament squad size calc - we need your data!

[Deleted User - 81190]

OK, so here is a post on tournament progression calculations (obviously, work-in-progress):

https://minmaxgame.com/tournament-requirements-calculation/

There is a calculator spreadsheet for tournaments (includes catering), so you can play around with that and see how ramp up requirements look like. Just like with the Spire, base squad size here is a given, just like last time that calculation may take some time to figure out. Let me know if it works for you (and especially if it doesn't).

 

[DeletedUser3314]

Getting close:

Spoiler: Data

City	Race	Date	Chapter	Expansions	Next Premium Cost	Chapter Progress	Total AW Levels	T1 Boost%	T2 Boost%	T3 Boost%	maxB	M	A	P	V	nStar	nProv	TSSo	TSSe	Coins	Supplies
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-14	1	10	450	12	0	86%			86%	12	0	0	10	1	1	2	1	450	45
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-14	1	11	450	13	0	86%			86%	13	0	0	11	1	2	4	2	900	90
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	12	0	0	11	2	1	4	2	900	90
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	13	0	0	11	2	2	6	3	1400	140

But ate least its lower then predicted.

 

[CrazyWizard]

OK, so here are preliminary observations based on anonymous player who sent detailed info up to province 30 (1*):

- Your own SS increases linearly at least until L30, so if your TSS in province 1 is X, then in province 2 it will be 2X, in 10 will be 10X, in 20 - 20X etc. This is the same how your own SS ramped up previously (except the initial TSS is different)
- Enemy TSS is fixed to your own for each province, and matches Dony's table, i.e. if your own base TSS is X, then enemy TSS in province 5 will be 0.63X, in province 10 will be 1.15X, 1.58X in province 20 and 1.94X in province 30.
- Relative costs of goods are the same as for the Spire, you can look at relative values under Catering Costs here: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-requirements-calculation/
- Costs of catering are directly proportionate to your own TSS. Not to enemy TSS. This means that catering does NOT experience double ramp up in difficulty that fighting does. For fighting, your own TSS grows, and your enemy TSS factor grows. This does not happen with catering, so it grows in linear fashion, e.g. catering province 30 is "only" 30x more expensive than province 1.
- You can actually use my Spire requirements calculator (http://bit.ly/spire-req-calc) to calculate your costs of goods for any particular encounter. You will need to use 3.3 factor to your own tournament squad size in a particular encounter. So if you see your own TSS as 1000, you need to type in 3300 and the first line in the spreadsheet will give you your catering costs.

This is all for 1* for now, but if Dony data is correct, then it is easy to generalize it to other star tiers. Don't know yet how base TSSo relates to base SSSo as I haven't seen that data.

Wow, those catering costs are scary, I entered some numbers but yaikes! even in the first 10 provinces in the first round they already ramp up to very scary numbers

 

[CrazyWizard]

Getting close:

Spoiler: Data

City	Race	Date	Chapter	Expansions	Next Premium Cost	Chapter Progress	Total AW Levels	T1 Boost%	T2 Boost%	T3 Boost%	maxB	M	A	P	V	nStar	nProv	TSSo	TSSe	Coins	Supplies
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-14	1	10	450	12	0	86%			86%	12	0	0	10	1	1	2	1	450	45
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-14	1	11	450	13	0	86%			86%	13	0	0	11	1	2	4	2	900	90
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	12	0	0	11	2	1	4	2	900	90
Lord Soth ZZ1	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	13	0	0	11	2	2	6	3	1400	140

View attachment 7572
But ate least its lower then predicted.

Those numbers are so low, that accuracy will be difficult due to rounding errors

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

Wow, those catering costs are scary, I entered some numbers but yaikes! even in the first 10 provinces in the first round they already ramp up to very scary numbers

You can try a new version in the post above, this way you may see the whole progression through provinces.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

I made sure to not change any of the items that are supposed to influence the new tournament squad size and when I did the 2nd stars of my 8 provinces today, I saw something I do not remember seeing anyone say. I know there is the new chart of the difficulty in the announcement, but my numbers match how that is shaded in. The squad sizes for province 1, star 2 is the exact same as for province 2, star 1. both are 27 - 7. And the same is true for province 2, star 2 and province 3, star 1. Both are 41 - 16. And so on. So tomorrow I expect province 1, star 3 to be equal in numbers to province 3, star 1.

I guess the next question is whether these numbers are locked in at the start of a tournament, the way they are with the Spire, or if doing things during the week will change the numbers, the way completing a Squad research does under the old system.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

I do not remember seeing anyone say.

Well, it is right in the post that I referred to above, as well as in the tournament calculator there...

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

I guess the next question is whether these numbers are locked in at the start of a tournament, the way they are with the Spire, or if doing things during the week will change the numbers, the way completing a Squad research does under the old system.

And this was just clarified over in the other thread by Kersepitje:

Just to clarify, in the new setup your tournament cost is determined at the start of the tournament (just like the spire) so if you research something once the tournament has started it will not impact your cost until the next tournament starts.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

OK, so the progression (and spreadsheet) in this post

https://minmaxgame.com/tournament-requirements-calculation/

have been verified up to ~45 provinces and at least 3*, so I think we can assume that this is correct for now. This means that data template at https://bit.ly/TournamentSSData is simplified and only needs one line per city per tournament - ideally, with your max 1* province data. Everything else can be calculated from that. Keep in mind that just like with the Spire, the parameters are fixed at the tournament start, so no changes after that will have any impact until the next tournament.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

OK, this might be a bit anticlimactic, but I have just added a full tournament model to the post above - this includes base squad size. This is highly speculative at the moment as there is not much data (to say the least). Try it out on your own data, and let me know if that worked for you (or not).

EDIT: permissions fixed

 

[DeletedUser3314]

My final data for this first new-style tournament:

Spoiler: Data

City	Race	Date	Chapter	Expansions	Next Premium Cost	Chapter Progress	Total AW Levels	T1 Boost%	T2 Boost%	T3 Boost%	maxB	M	A	P	V	nStar	nProv	TSSo	TSSe	Coins	Supplies
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-14	1	10	450	12	0	86%			86%	12	0	0	10	1	1	2	1	450	45
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-14	1	11	450	13	0	86%			86%	13	0	0	11	1	2	4	2	900	90
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	2	1	4	2	900	90
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-15	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	2	2	6	3	1400	140
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-16	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	3	1	6	3	1400	140
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-16	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	3	2	7	4	1800	180
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-16	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	4	1	10	6	1800	180
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-16	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	4	2	10	7	2300	230
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-17	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	5	1	10	7	2300	230
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-17	1	11	450	14	0	86%			86%	14	0	0	11	5	2	11	9	2700	270
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-18	1	11	450	15	0	86%			86%	15	0	0	11	6	1	11	9	2700	270
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-18	1	11	450	15	0	86%			86%	15	0	0	11	6	2	13	12	3200	320

The mismatch between round 3-2 and 4-1 is when they tried to fix squad size for newbies.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

It seems that the old version of the page was cached for some people, so they didn't see the last update. Should be fixed now (check if you see "Full Tournament Requirements Calculator"), and do forced refresh if you don't.

 

[CrazyWizard]

@MinMax Gamer amd I reading this wrong or does the bonus from mountain halls also count towards difficulty?
I notices you added 820% as baseline.

I hope not because in that case mountain halls would be double dipping in the difficulty formula.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

@MinMax Gamer amd I reading this wrong or does the bonus from mountain halls also count towards difficulty?
I notices you added 820% as baseline.

I hope not because in that case mountain halls would be double dipping in the difficulty formula.

Relic bonus is capped at 700%, so MH won't matter.

 

[DeletedUser3314]

@MinMax Gamer: Your formula doesn't match with my data, almost 50% smaller TSSo & TSSe then predicted in 3rd province and cost are lower also. Lucky for me.

Spoiler: Data

City	Race	Date	Chapter	Expansions	Next Premium Cost	Chapter Progress	Total AW Levels	T1 Boost%	T2 Boost%	T3 Boost%	maxB	M	A	P	V	nStar	nProv	TSSo	TSSe	Coins	Supplies	T1
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	1	10	2	1400		34
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	2	11	3		270	68
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	3	16	7	4100	410	51

 

[PaNonymeB]

@MinMax Gamer: Your formula doesn't match with my data, almost 50% smaller TSSo & TSSe then predicted in 3rd province and cost are lower also. Lucky for me.

Spoiler: Data

City	Race	Date	Chapter	Expansions	Next Premium Cost	Chapter Progress	Total AW Levels	T1 Boost%	T2 Boost%	T3 Boost%	maxB	M	A	P	V	nStar	nProv	TSSo	TSSe	Coins	Supplies	T1
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	1	10	2	1400		34
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	2	11	3		270	68
ZZ1 Lord Soth	E	2020-07-21	2	13	450	3	0	86%			86%	21	0	0	13	1	3	16	7	4100	410	51

View attachment 7628

Actually, your data fits well except for squad sizes for first province if you replace the 10 by something like 5.5. The reason why the fight is 10vs2 in first province and not something like 6vs1 is because a 6vs1 would have created this bug. So they probably replaced own squad size by 10 for all encounters where squad size is <10 (in your case, only the 1st province 1* as your base tournament squad size is ~5.5) to reduce such rounding errors.

 

[DeletedUser3314]

Actually, your data fits well except for squad sizes for first province if you replace the 10 by something like 5.5. The reason why the fight is 10vs2 in first province and not something like 6vs1 is because a 6vs1 would have created this bug. So they probably replaced own squad size by 10 for all encounters where old squad size is <10 (in your case, only the 1st province 1* as your base tournament squad size is ~5.5) to reduce such rounding errors.

You're probably right but that only shows how stupid the formula really is if it needs tinkering like this.

5.33333 entered, matches better indeed:

Edit: TSSo 5.25 matches even better for round 2.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

Actually, your data fits well except for squad sizes for first province if you replace the 10 by something like 5.5. The reason why the fight is 10vs2 in first province and not something like 6vs1 is because a 6vs1 would have created this bug. So they probably replaced own squad size by 10 for all encounters where squad size is <10 (in your case, only the 1st province 1* as your base tournament squad size is ~5.5) to reduce such rounding errors.

Pretty much; you can look at catering costs, these are not affected by flooring of the squad sizes.

EDIT: It also seems that the tournament formula is not super accurate for the tiniest of cities (even ignoring the floor @ 10). E.g. the newborn city (no progress whatsoever) comes up with 0.2 base TSSo forecast, but in reality it is more like 1.75. That's not really surprising as we never had such small cities in the Spire calc because of chapter 3 limit.

 

[Deleted User - 81190]

OK, so with very limited data so far (some from here, some from EN tournament), here are some speculations re: changes:

- Impact of regular expansions went down, but not significantly so
- Cost of premium expansions vs regular ones went down, from 75% down to ~60%
- AW impact stayed the same
- Research impact indeed went up, from 1.0042 up to something like 1.0045 (doesn't sound like much, but remember, this is a base for an exponent)

Now, a lot of that is highly speculative as there is not that much variety in data just yet. We need more, including cities with a lot of premium expansions - as well as smaller cities (low research). Based on that, conclusions may change.

 

[edeba]

Wow, on live for the spire I really felt like chapter 16 was massively expensive. I found it mind boggling how much more expensive the spire became between chapter 15 and 16. I did add 3 more premium expansions, but it was just "wow" for the spire...

So, knowing what we have and how drastically it changes from a single chapter, it is mind numbing that they would up the tech costs.

But, I think it is a lot, 6.7% increase.

OK, so with very limited data so far (some from here, some from EN tournament), here are some speculations re: changes:

- Impact of regular expansions went down, but not significantly so
- Cost of premium expansions vs regular ones went down, from 75% down to ~60%
- AW impact stayed the same
- Research impact indeed went up, from 1.0042 up to something like 1.0045 (doesn't sound like much, but remember, this is a base for an exponent)

Now, a lot of that is highly speculative as there is not that much variety in data just yet. We need more, including cities with a lot of premium expansions - as well as smaller cities (low research). Based on that, conclusions may change.