Discussion Sorcerers' Homecoming

[PrimroseSylvia]

@streilers, do you really have a completed set and some extra buildings?
I'm pretty sure no one figured it out, basically you post it only twice and one for your gold league.
Jokes asaid, I can understand that you're happy with it, but one post is more than enough

 

[streilers]

@streilers, do you really have a completed set and some extra buildings?
I'm pretty sure no one figured it out, basically you post it only twice and one for your gold league.
Jokes asaid, I can understand that you're happy with it, but one post is more than enough

the first time I showed the progress of my entire city, the second just the event building,

I have indeed 1 complete set, + 4 piece of a secondary set, which I link to the first, depending on how they are arranged, we can take advantage of the bonuses without having the complete set on the 2nd

 

[DeletedUser3726]

Now I feel even more confident in my assumption

Well of course you do, that's how confirmation bias works .

 

[SoggyShorts]

Well of course you do, that's how confirmation bias works .

Heheeh Do you know what really triggers my confirmation biases? posts like this:

I remember arguing black and blue with @SoggyShorts about cross-trades and their value. I just couldn't see his POV - not until I let go of my own. Turns out I was wrong

 

[DeletedUser3726]

Heheeh Do you know what really triggers my confirmation biases? posts like this:

View attachment 9151

The head on that pic is waaayyyy too small

 

[GerdyaanB]

On live worlds set is not attainable without considerable luck on getting extra scrolls....

 

[Aeva]

On live world it is possible to have the complete set if you choose to go for the staff that costs the least, every time.
You cannot go for a daily or for extra scrolls. And you have to pick up a lot of scrolls that fall out of the sky.

 

[little bee]

On live world it is possible to have the complete set if you choose to go for the staff that costs the least, every time.
You cannot go for a daily or for extra scrolls. And you have to pick up a lot of scrolls that fall out of the sky.

No that wouldn't work. With the worst possible luck the cheapest staff could always cost 27 scrolls. Thus the entire set would cost 7020 scrolls. With finishing every quest, collecting every daily bonus and every single scroll from around the city, you will still not come close to 7k.

You may not need exceptionally good luck to get the full set, but you do need at least slightly less than average luck. Bad luck will ruin eveything.

 

[SoggyShorts]

On live world it is possible to have the complete set if you choose to go for the staff that costs the least, every time.
You cannot go for a daily or for extra scrolls. And you have to pick up a lot of scrolls that fall out of the sky.

Tried that with 6 accounts, only worked for 1 city.

 

[Aeva]

It worked with two of my cities.
The third one I played with no system and I did not make it there.

 

[SoggyShorts]

It worked with two of my cities.
The third one I played with no system and I did not make it there.

So emphasis on "possible" then.

 

[Aeva]

There is allways a bit of luck involved @SoggyShorts After all it's a game.

 

[SoggyShorts]

There is allways a bit of luck involved @SoggyShorts After all it's a game.

Of course, but it's the degree to which RNG controls the outcome.

When you say "It's possible, but you have to pick the right chests"
The impression in English is that the most likely outcome is success if you follow the instructions.

The truth is that while anything is "possible", doing everything right doesn't even help much because you need better than average luck as well making RNG the much more important factor in your success (or lack of it)

A lucky player making all of the wrong choices does far better than a perfect-play unlucky one, and that blows.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Of course, but it's the degree to which RNG controls the outcome.

When you say "It's possible, but you have to pick the right chests"
The impression in English is that the most likely outcome is success if you follow the instructions.

The truth is that while anything is "possible", doing everything right doesn't even help much because you need better than average luck as well making RNG the much more important factor in your success (or lack of it)

A lucky player making all of the wrong choices does far better than a perfect-play unlucky one, and that blows.

Yep, which is why we like the 16-box system better. Less RNG to screw with getting the grand prizes.

 

[Aeva]

When you say "It's possible, but you have to pick the right chests"
The impression in English is that the most likely outcome is success if you follow the instructions.

That is exactly what I mean. The most likely outcome if you actualy choose the cheapest staf (not the cheapest chest!) is that you will have the whole set.

 

[SoggyShorts]

That is exactly what I mean. The most likely outcome if you actualy choose the cheapest staf (not the cheapest chest!) is that you will have the whole set.

Do you know that for a fact? Have you done the math? Please show your work.
I got 1 out of 6 picking the best chests, Eudae got 1 out of 7 I think, and many others got similar results, so I'd like to see mathematical facts to go with such a statement.


Edit:
Here are my numbers for live
3630* for quests
770 for dailies
400 for milestones
400** for collects
----
5,200

That means you need to average 20 currency per point which is going to be a pretty neat trick when every choice other than 18 is much higher than that.

*I don't have the quest numbers, everyone's list still shows pre-nerf, so I deducted ~15%
** 18 collects per day seemed reasonable.

 

[PrimroseSylvia]

3630* for quests

3720 (not everyone is showing pre-nerf )

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Here are my numbers for live
3630* for quests
770 for dailies
400 for milestones
400** for collects
----
5,200

That means you need to average 20 currency per point which is going to be a pretty neat trick when every choice other than 18 is much higher than that.

*I don't have the quest numbers, everyone's list still shows pre-nerf, so I deducted ~15%
** 18 collects per day seemed reasonable.

Plus the 100 from the newsletter and about 110 from a fed, max level Ashen Phoenix. And I always count 20 per day from spawns, because of the ones that are 2 or 3, so another 40 there. And yeah, that does not raise the average much, but still.

 

[little bee]

That is exactly what I mean. The most likely outcome if you actualy choose the cheapest staf (not the cheapest chest!) is that you will have the whole set.

Always choosing the cheapest chest will give you a 1/4 chance of the 18 scroll beacon and a 2/3 chance of the 45 scroll beacons. Otherwise the cheapest staff costs around 27 scrolls. (The chance of getting the cheap beacons is actually a little higher when there are less than 3 steps left, but that is not as important as getting unlucky with the beacons.) So the avereage staff will cost:
1/4*18+3/4*2/3*22,5+ 3/4*1/3*27=22,5 scrolls
This means we need a total of 5850 scrolls for the whole set. (Or more if you are unlucky with the choice of beacons.) I think that is more than we could get without extra currency.

 

[SoggyShorts]

3720 (not everyone is showing pre-nerf )

Thank you

Plus the 100 from the newsletter and about 110 from a fed, max level Ashen Phoenix. And I always count 20 per day from spawns, because of the ones that are 2 or 3, so another 40 there. And yeah, that does not raise the average much, but still.

so if I've got all of that added correctly we get 5,540, right?
Meaning you'd need an average of 21.3 per flag.
Still, no Bueno when the average is 22.5 as @little bee showed above while I was typing this.

So, if average luck will fail then @Aeva I'm afraid you position is incorrect.

It's also worth mentioning that you only get 1 letter, so anyone with multiple cities can't rely on that, and a lot of players do not have an ashen phoenix since they either weren't playing then, or converted to fire artifacts during that event.