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Discussion Elvarian Carnival 2021
- Thread starter Marindor
- Start date
Deleted User - 81190
Guest
I have updated chest strategy calculators for this event, the main thread is here:
Master Thief
New Member
Do we have any connection with the last year event? Can we get the old evolving building again from the magic academy?
Arthus
Well-Known Member
you didn't understand than i've meant single good.
Like only planks.
Yes you are right of course Siren gives more overall because it gives 3 goods, not single good.
Sleigh gives 1 good but 50% more of this SINGLE good than siren. It's nice because Sleigh isn't good-focused evo building. It's seeds/3KP focused.
For me in live it will give planks. Here marble.
Hopefully some evo buildings will switch to new chapter 18 goods when time comes.
I don't understand their strategy without giving universal artifacts, to place other building artifacts.
There are like 1 million different artifacts already. You know when Stonehenge one was last seen? FA summer 2019.
New players who got Stonehenge base, can't get artifact. Old players who had stonehenge at lvl 10, can't get new base for Stonehenge, but they have useless artifacts. This problem will need a solution.
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SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
Are there any new buildings in the files for this event?
Enevhar Aldarion
Well-Known Member
The buildings on day one and day two were new, weren't they?
Edit: and the front page of elvenarchitect has them all listed,
SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I meant any "more" new buildings.
Thanks! Nothing really for my cities there, but the Goblin Gift shop is a pretty hard act to follow.
Edit: The lifeblood cone is actually pretty solid.
At 10.5 squares including roads, it gives about 3.5-5 sq of pop leaving 200-250 seeds per day per square which almost puts them on par with festivals.
Could be useful for some cities with low wonder levels or who are unlucky at getting the FM from crafting.
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Jackluyt
Well-Known Member
1. Technical production is excellent as usual.
2. So far, up to quest 30, the Quest set is almost exactly the same as Misty Forest. This set is much better than the early events had. Most / all of the 'event-ender' quests - ones that knocked out some cities early because the quests were for various reasons impossible to complete - have either been eliminated, or there is an alternative.
3. Most players prefer the nine rotating chests and we are glad to see them back. This gives more control over how you plan your spending of event currency - particularly for those not interested in the Grand Prize, who only do the event for the Instants and Boosters.
4. Having Orcs as prizes is perhaps a good idea, as is Sentient Goods. But I do not think many will be over the moon about ordinary Tier two and tier three goods.
SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
Have you done a poll on this?
SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
Jackluyt
Well-Known Member
Questar
Member
Hi @Marindor
Firstly, I'm enjoying the event - it's the first chest- based event I've played.
I'm relatively new to Beta but noted that chest contents are to some extent chapter-related. Playing in Ch.3, I don't yet have a use for Portal Profits instants, whether as a daily prize or chest prize. Any chance this could be addressed when the event comes to live worlds and some other instants offered for lower level players?
SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
To an extent, not every prize is for everyone. If Portal profits don't interest you, then you can just open another chest, or spend currency on another day. I also have zero use for portal profits despite being in chapter 16.
Questar
Member
ekarat
Well-Known Member
I calculated them myself and got different results, which may be due to different data. Where did you get your data?
As an example of the difference, take a look at the chest costing 46 versus the chest costing 139.
The chest costing 139 has a 5% chance of giving you 500 candies, which is an effective discount of 25 candies, or 114 for 5 flags, or 22.8 candies/flag.
The chest costing 46 has no candy rewards, or 46 candies for 2 flags, which is 23 candies/flag.
So, if you want the grand prize, the 139 chest is better than the 46 chest. The calculator puts the 139 chest much lower, though.
Obviously, either calculation is only as good as the data, which is why I'm asking about your data. My data come from the image in this forum:
SoggyShorts
Well-Known Member
@ekarat
I believe that minmax uses advanced simulations which prove that spending 139 candies on a bad chest is worse than spending 46 candies instead, even if that 46 chest has slightly worse returns by itself.
Taken to the extreme:
Chest options are
1,000 candies pays 100 flags
100 candies pays 9 flags
It looks like the 1K chest is better on a flags per candy basis, but you should still just buy the 100 chest and access a better set rather than investing 10x as much in a chest that is bad.
Basically if all options are bad, you want to take the cheapest one in order to access good options, even if that cheap option is the worst.
Extreme example again:
2 bad chests
and
1 awful chest that offers nothing at all, zero flags and zero prizes, BUT only costs 1 candy. Buy that chest and get some new ones.
I believe that minmax uses advanced simulations which prove that spending 139 candies on a bad chest is worse than spending 46 candies instead, even if that 46 chest has slightly worse returns by itself.
Taken to the extreme:
Chest options are
1,000 candies pays 100 flags
100 candies pays 9 flags
It looks like the 1K chest is better on a flags per candy basis, but you should still just buy the 100 chest and access a better set rather than investing 10x as much in a chest that is bad.
Basically if all options are bad, you want to take the cheapest one in order to access good options, even if that cheap option is the worst.
Extreme example again:
2 bad chests
and
1 awful chest that offers nothing at all, zero flags and zero prizes, BUT only costs 1 candy. Buy that chest and get some new ones.
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ekarat
Well-Known Member
You have a point about paying 1 candy to get a whole new set of chests. However, 22.8 candies/flag is still the 4th best ratio of candies/flag. Still, you have a [1 - (6c3)/(9c3)] or ~75% chance of doing better on the next draw, but only a 1-in-3 chance in getting the best one at 20.3, since #2 and #3 at 22 aren't that much better than #4.
Chance of getting chest # as your best option:
11/3
2 1/4
3 15/84
4 5/42
5 1/14
6 1/28
7 1/84
ekarat
Well-Known Member
Sorry, my browser froze. Out of 84 rounds, you would expect a pure greedy algorithm to get 211 flags for 4,577 candies, or 21.7 candies/flag, which is indeed better than 22.8 for the 4th highest chest, so you do expect to do better in the next round. Okay, I see where this is coming from. Sorry for getting this split up because my browser froze.