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DeletedUser651
Guest
Kat...
swaps only work once you have the wonder you want to build. The problem is in gaining the runes necessary to build the wonder in the first place.
swaps only work once you have the wonder you want to build. The problem is in gaining the runes necessary to build the wonder in the first place.
DeletedUser867
Guest
Swaps work BEST if you both have something that the other person wants to build, but that's not going to happen very often. Swaps and Knowledge Point Clubs work just fine for mutually leveling each other's Ancient Wonders. After all, you only need 18 Runes every 5th level, and some of them are going to come from Tournaments and newly acquired sectors.
But I do agree with your essential point because if somebody coughs up some Diamonds, for a newly released Ancient Wonder, their honey is going to attract a lot of flies. They'll CONTINUE to well, once things settle down, if they've been careful to reciprocate in kind. Spreadsheets are handy that way.
Jixel
Well-Known Member
... on average. Or maybe even - if you're lucky.
It took me 27 for my most recent 5->6 upgrade, and I've heard of many people having similar runs of bad luck with runes. I feel a poll coming on ...
CrazyWizard
Well-Known Member
I always need around 30, no clue where they came up with the 18 runes? doesnt make sense to me.
DeletedUser
Guest
Hahahaha! Do we really think that Inno is going to let Rune breakage be determined by an algorithm producing a fair distribution?
For that matter, do we think that Rune acquisition is equally determined by a straightforward, fair algorithm?
Remember: the more frustrated you become - the more "runs of bad luck" - the more likely you are to pay for a Rune. We can run all the probability calculations we like - but nowhere does Inno promise us a fair delivery system.
For that matter, do we think that Rune acquisition is equally determined by a straightforward, fair algorithm?
Remember: the more frustrated you become - the more "runs of bad luck" - the more likely you are to pay for a Rune. We can run all the probability calculations we like - but nowhere does Inno promise us a fair delivery system.
DeletedUser651
Guest
18? In my dreams. Not in my experience. It takes me roughly 30 and 35 isn't unusual. 18? 18?
And what is that nonsense about 250 being the nominal size with 5th place giving you a rune? Um....no. An ancient wonder that only requires 250 kp to level up is no farther than level 2. You don't get runes for five places donating to a level 2 wonder. Nor do you get runes for five places for donating to a wonder on level 5.
A level 7 CL needs 540 kp and still only gives runes to 4 places.
Try again. Your figures are WAYYYYY off. Try tripling that number....or more.
Or are again citing figures from a different game? Such as FoE? We are talking about ancient wonders in Elvenar, not FoE.
And what is that nonsense about 250 being the nominal size with 5th place giving you a rune? Um....no. An ancient wonder that only requires 250 kp to level up is no farther than level 2. You don't get runes for five places donating to a level 2 wonder. Nor do you get runes for five places for donating to a wonder on level 5.
A level 7 CL needs 540 kp and still only gives runes to 4 places.
Try again. Your figures are WAYYYYY off. Try tripling that number....or more.
Or are again citing figures from a different game? Such as FoE? We are talking about ancient wonders in Elvenar, not FoE.
DeletedUser867
Guest
When you're chasing Rune Shards you have an equal chance of getting any of them. Assuming that you don't have ANY Rune Shards, and that you've opened three technologies, you'll have a 25% chance that ANY ONE of them will get to 18 Rune Shards first, but at that point the other 5 AWs will only be a few Rune Shards short of 18, so once you get the first AW, the rest will happen rather quickly.
And so far the Elvenar Ancient Wonders are behaving EXACTLY like the FoE Great Buildings, except that
- If you're desperate to get an AW 30 seconds after it's released, then of course you'll need Diamonds.
- The probability distribution for rolling a single die, 6 possible outcomes, is well understood, and our model is analogous. See http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/math/dice.html. The results are going to be the same whether you
- throw a single die multiple times
- throw multiple dice a single time
- or any combination thereof
- If you're happy to wait for most of the next chapter, you'll have 30 more Rune Shards anyway, to open the next Advanced Scouting Chest
- You can supplement the acquired sector Rune Shards with Tournaments and AW awards.
- 9/9 + 9/8 + 9/7 + 9/6 + 9/5 + 9/4 + 9/3 + 9/2 = 16.24 trials to fill the first 8 Rune Wheel slots, on average
- You'll have 8 broken shards as well
- Trial 17 will get you either a full wheel or 9 broken shards
- Trial 18 will get you either a full wheel of 10 broken shards, so you're done.
- 1/2 ensures 1st place
- 1/3 ensures at least 2nd place
- 1/4 ensures at least 3rd place
- 1/5 ensures at least 4th place
- 1/6 ensures at least 5th place
- If you contribute FEWER than 1/6th of the points, or more precisely
Half of (The remaining points minus your lead or plus your lag)
then you're at risk of being bumped, or "sniped" if you prefer the pejorative term
- The 10% pool for KP awards is distributed 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32 rounded DOWN to the nearest 5 KPs.
- The Rune Shards are distributed round robin, Level 7 would yield: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 then 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 +1
And so far the Elvenar Ancient Wonders are behaving EXACTLY like the FoE Great Buildings, except that
- The FoE GBs pay out 20% FPs, with an even higher payout above level 10
- Blueprints are pretty much the same thing as Rune Shards. You can convert them 2:1, but the odds are WORSE than in Elvenar
- Level 1 requires 9 blueprints, as does every level above 10
- Each of the FoE GBs has a history tab
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DeletedUser
Guest
But Inno is rolling their own dice and giving us their results. And there's not an online game that doesn't use some form of a weighted formula designed to impede progress.
DeletedUser867
Guest
Or, to state the same concept positively, designed to provide some realistic constraints. While people don't conceptualize them as such, most meatspace activities are chaotic. If they're a slam dunk then we turn them over to a machine because they're not interesting.
All of my trials have validated the above statistical model for filling a Rune Wheel,
and numerical analysis is my thing, so I'm quite suspicious of outliers.
DeletedUser1345
Guest
Inno, come blow your horn! THe rewards for contributing to a wonder have increased. 1st place in a level 4 wonder gives 2 runes, when it used to give one. There has been an increase, if not a huge one. I wonder why that has not been announced.
Does not solve the issue of SO many wonders, making the rune you want hard to get, but it does help some in the one way that provides the rune you want, contributing to other wonders.
Does not solve the issue of SO many wonders, making the rune you want hard to get, but it does help some in the one way that provides the rune you want, contributing to other wonders.
DeletedUser651
Guest
No. That isn't true. It could take you 90 rune shards to fill those 9 slots. Every rune you get can break. The first 10 runes you get can all shatter, then you forge one rune, then 10 more could shatter, then forge the second, etc. etc. Or it could take you 9 runes to forge a wonder. The average/mean of 9 and 90 is 49.5. I have no clue what the median number of runes it takes to build a wonder, that depends on the weighted formula BP spoke of above.
Frankly, when I get a rune that doesn't shatter, I am surprised.
DeletedUser867
Guest
A Rune Shard will only shatter if it tries to land in a randomly selected slot, and that slot has ALREADY been filled.
- In your FIRST state, which is an empty wheel, a Rune Shard will NEVER shatter.
- In your SECOND state, a Rune Shard will shatter 1 time out of 9
- It's more convenient to say that you'll be successful 8 times out of 9
- And you can express the odds as how many trials you'll need to FILL 8/9ths, it's a simple inversion, which is where we get 9/8ths.
- And you can simply add up the number of trials that you'll need at each stage.
- In your THIRD state, a Rune Shard sill shatter 2 times out of 9, so you'll need 9/7 trials.
- In your FOURTH state, a Rune Shard will shatter 3 times out of 9, so you'll need 9/6 trials.
- Etc. for 16 trials
- In your NINTH state, a Rune Shard will shatter 8 times out of 9, so you'll need 9/1 trials
- This is WHY the Broken Rune Shard Bar is so important. It chops the tail off of the distribution, right when your odds are the worst.
- 18 Trials = 18 Rune Shards per wheel, on average. Tally your results, don't trust your memory.
- If you need fewer than 15 or more than 21 Rune Shards to fill a Wheel, I'd be very interested in looking at your data and your methodology.
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DeletedUser
Guest
I just opened up my monastery lvl 6 and i needed over 33 shards to do so. so many broke that i had to forge a new one from 10 broken runes twice.
From what others have been experienced in my fs the same has been happening to them. I have a feeling they actually increased the chances of a rune to break, because months ago when players were opening up lvl 6 in the first few wonders built it seemed to be much easier.
Jixel
Well-Known Member
On the second point, I can only give a data point, I didn't record the exact outcome of each rune shard placement - but it took me 27 Shards to fill a wheel, starting from empty. I think I know why, though, and it comes back to the unstated assumption in your 18 Shards figure above - you're assuming the Broken Shard bar is empty to start, and it doesn't fill "too soon".
If it's not, you could imagine a sequence like this, starting with an empty wheel, and 1 Broken shard already in the bar:
Rune - Rune - Rune - Rune - Break - Rune - Break - Break - Break - Break
(now we have 5 Runes filled, and 6 Broken shards)
Rune - Break - Rune - Break - Break - Break - Rune (Forged)
(now we have 8 Runes filled, and an empty broken shard bar) (and we've already used 16 Shards)
"On average", the last slot will take 4.5 Rune Shards to fill, assuming a fair 1/9 chance - however, if you have to wait to fill the broken shard bar, it'll take a full 10 more Shards, taking the total to 26.
In fact, even if the Broken shard bar is empty to start, you could get a slightly unlucky sequence and still fill it "too soon", and your last few slots will be an uphill battle. I think you need a more sophisticated model
DeletedUser1075
Guest
I think Jixel has a point. While Katwijk's model is correct in theory, in practice we have runes from multiple wonders and the shard bar is rarely empty at the point where you start to fill a new wheel. In fact, I started my most recent wheel with a full shard bar that had to be forged into a rune.
That said, it is possible to extrapolate from Katwijk's model that even with an unlucky sequence and shard bar status, it shouldn't take more than 27 runes at the outside to fill. That said, I think that is only true if you do it all at once though. If you are using runes as you acquire them, across multiple wonders, then that would (I think) mess with the shard bar status and cost you more runes.
Which is to say - if you want to use the fewest runes possible, wait until you have 15+ runes in the bank before you try to fill the wheel. Or only attempt to fill one wheel at a time. But who has the patience for that?
That said, it is possible to extrapolate from Katwijk's model that even with an unlucky sequence and shard bar status, it shouldn't take more than 27 runes at the outside to fill. That said, I think that is only true if you do it all at once though. If you are using runes as you acquire them, across multiple wonders, then that would (I think) mess with the shard bar status and cost you more runes.
Which is to say - if you want to use the fewest runes possible, wait until you have 15+ runes in the bank before you try to fill the wheel. Or only attempt to fill one wheel at a time. But who has the patience for that?
DeletedUser867
Guest
Or you could avoid using the full bar, until it counts for more.
The FINAL slot needs more than half the trials (9) as all the other slots combined (16.24)
The FINAL slot needs more than half the trials (9) as all the other slots combined (16.24)
DeletedUser1075
Guest
I tried that - I was unable to place a rune until I had cleared the full shard bar. It appeared that, once full, the shard bar must be used to forge a rune before you can place any other runes you might have.
DeletedUser
Guest
I must be really unlucky then, because it took me 33 runes to fill the circle for my monastery 2 days ago... and it was done in one go. Grant you, I think i had some shards broken already, so i had to forge the rune early on, but it still took me 33 runes and another forged rune to complete the circle.
CrazyWizard
Well-Known Member
Dear Katwijk,
Almost any player experiences the need of about 30-35 runes to complete the wonders, not once but multiple times.
In my own case this relates to 5 times already and all 5 times it needed around 30 runes.
You can come up with statistics and stuff, but if those statistics are based on RL rules and the game uses game rules then your statistics simply wont work.
Almost any player experiences the need of about 30-35 runes to complete the wonders, not once but multiple times.
In my own case this relates to 5 times already and all 5 times it needed around 30 runes.
You can come up with statistics and stuff, but if those statistics are based on RL rules and the game uses game rules then your statistics simply wont work.