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Discussion Autumn Zodiac

Deleted User - 70079

Guest
Karvest said:
Only if quests have equal probabilities to appear, which is not the case here.
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My earlier comment was proposing to change it from the current system, to a truly random system, in which all quests have equal chance of appearing. Under such a system, if you had 20 different possible quests, then out of 1000 quests about 50 would be questA, with 1-2 occasions where questA occurred twice in a row, and probably no occasions where it occurred 3 times in a row (maybe 1 occasion if you were very unlucky). Even though this wouldn't eliminate the possibility of getting the same quest more than once in a row, it would make it extremely rare. I am suggesting that this would be sufficiently rare as to not be a problem, so such a simplistic fix would nonetheless be an effective one.
 
Heymrdiedier

Heymrdiedier

Well-Known Member
UlyssesBlue said:
My earlier comment was proposing to change it from the current system, to a truly random system, in which all quests have equal chance of appearing. Under such a system, if you had 20 different possible quests, then out of 1000 quests about 50 would be questA, with 1-2 occasions where questA occurred twice in a row, and probably no occasions where it occurred 3 times in a row (maybe 1 occasion if you were very unlucky). Even though this wouldn't eliminate the possibility of getting the same quest more than once in a row, it would make it extremely rare. I am suggesting that this would be sufficiently rare as to not be a problem, so such a simplistic fix would nonetheless be an effective one.
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i understood what you ment (or i think so, since i still think i know what you ment after reading your posts), but thats not how random really works.
read up on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem if you pick 23 random people, the chance that 2 of them have the same birthday is 50%, and with 70 random people thats allready 99.9%. while i think what you would like is, that it wont happen untill around 367 people are selected.

And thats with a probability of 1/366 so with a chance of 1/20 those 23 and 70 numbers are a lot lower.

It was perfectly random before the change of workshop and manufactories quests.
 

DeletedUser2829

Guest
Heymrdiedier said:
i understood what you ment (or i think so, since i still think i know what you ment after reading your posts), but thats not how random really works.
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Heymreider very key difference here - selecting with and without replacement.You're comparing apples with oranges here - your birthday example is selecting without replacement (i.e once dave is picked he can't be picked again). The quest system would allow a quest to appear more than once. Selecting without replacement leads to some interesting counter intuitive examples like the birthday thing where things that seem quite unlikely are actually pretty common. That isn't what we are discussing here, it would lead to a quest system where we all have the same 50 or whatever quests and just got them in a different order. My numbers are right for a basket of quests selected purely at random WITH replacement.
 
Heymrdiedier

Heymrdiedier

Well-Known Member
LazyTony said:
Heymreider very key difference here - selecting with and without replacement.You're comparing apples with oranges here - your birthday example is selecting without replacement (i.e once dave is picked he can't be picked again). The quest system would allow a quest to appear more than once. Selecting without replacement leads to some interesting counter intuitive examples like the birthday thing where things that seem quite unlikely are actually pretty common. That isn't what we are discussing here, it would lead to a quest system where we all have the same 50 or whatever quests and just got them in a different order. My numbers are right for a basket of quests selected purely at random WITH replacement.
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why is this different. You select a person born on day x (with probability p), compared to you select a quest (with probabailty q).
p being 1/366 and q being 1/20.
Its not about selecting people, its about selecting a birthday, the next person i select has again same chances of the birthday, so this is WITH replacement?
 
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