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Discussion The Forbidden Ruins

FieryArien

Well-Known Member
All story quests done, all daily scrolls quests claimed, many many scrolls around the city collected. Spent 5632 scrolls plus 260 scrolls won in beacons and I ended up with 235 staves, bronze league, 25 staves short of finishing the set. Not going to spend diamonds in such a situation, even though it was my plan when the event started. I’m too (fill in whatever colorful synonym for angry you like).

Actually I took track of the beacons (sorted in order of preference)
24x beacon 23 -> won 2x 30 scrolls
29x beacon 22
24x beacon 75 -> never 150 scrolls
36x beacon 79 -> won 1x 200 scrolls
1x beacon 58 -> no 80 scrolls

This is frustrating experience. And so far the scenario repeats in one of my live cities (the other one hasn’t spent any currency yet).
 

Alcaro

Well-Known Member
I got today the last building spending the last currency. I took in a proportion of 95% only the biggest beacons but rarely I got the scrolls. I guess I was one of the lucky ones around here.
 

Aexilius

Member
My response was to this (bolded to highlight).


The strategy to spend below 22 EC requires a calculation that takes into account potential won EC. What's more, it wouldn't be below 22 EC "on average" because you aren't offered the lowest valued chest (23 beacon valued at 19.4 EC) on every spin or even every other spin.

My wording may have been a bit strange. I meant that if you collect 5700 EC (not counting EC won back), you are expected to win enough EC back to score 260.

You're offered 23 beacon on average every 4th spin, 22 beacon every 4th spin, and 75 and 79 beacons have EV of 22 and 22.3 and you get them every spin (excluding those when you're at 18 or 19 points) Your EV is even better when you're at 18 and 19 because you are more likely to be offered 22 and 23 beacons.

It can happen that you're offered 33 58 60 when you're at 18, but it's not that common, and you can play around landing on 18. When you're at 19 you are certain to be offered 22 or 23.

The mentioned strategy basically pics 22, 23, 75 each 25% of the time, and 79 and 29 12.5% of the time. If you calculate it you see that you spend a bit below 22 EC/point on average.
 
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Droopy

Well-Known Member
My wording may have been a bit strange. I meant that if you collect 5700 EC (not counting EC won back), you are expected to win enough EC back to score 260.
This does not happen, you are lucky or you are not with getting EC. So you cannot say that the average is below the number it cost.
You can be even so unlucky to win no extra EC at all.
 

Aexilius

Member
This does not happen, you are lucky or you are not with getting EC. So you cannot say that the average is below the number it cost.
You can be even so unlucky to win no extra EC at all.

I am not saying that anything is certain. All I am saying is that you are expected to reach 260 score. Of course it can happen that you win no EC back, but it is very unlikely.

And regarding your claim that I "cannot say that the average is below the number it cost", of course I can, that is what average means. If I pick 23 beacon 50 times, the 12% chance of getting 30 EC back means that on average I get 30 EC back 6 times out of those 50. So I gained 50 points for picking 23 beacon 50 times, and I spend 23*50 = 1150 EC, but I got 30*6 = 180 back. In other words I spent 1150 - 180 = 970 EC for 50 points which is an average of 19.4 EC/point. Again, of course it can happen that I don't get any EC back, but the chances of that are (1-0.12)^50 = 0.17%
 

Droopy

Well-Known Member
I am not saying that anything is certain. All I am saying is that you are expected to reach 260 score. Of course it can happen that you win no EC back, but it is very unlikely.

And regarding your claim that I "cannot say that the average is below the number it cost", of course I can, that is what average means. If I pick 23 beacon 50 times, the 12% chance of getting 30 EC back means that on average I get 30 EC back 6 times out of those 50. So I gained 50 points for picking 23 beacon 50 times, and I spend 23*50 = 1150 EC, but I got 30*6 = 180 back. In other words I spent 1150 - 180 = 970 EC for 50 points which is an average of 19.4 EC/point. Again, of course it can happen that I don't get any EC back, but the chances of that are (1-0.12)^50 = 0.17%
Very simple, i think i can say i'm very active at beta.
Picked up many times a day EC around the city, finished all quests, tried mostly the effective/cheap beacons and won only 260 extra EC.
Will probably end with 234 stafs (may be 1 more) and far away from the 260. So your expected to reach is far to bold statement IMO.
 

Biloutte91

Well-Known Member
Impossible to have the Sorcerers Feast for me...

1643280924963.png


1643280929263.png
 

Aexilius

Member
Very simple, i think i can say i'm very active at beta.
Picked up many times a day EC around the city, finished all quests, tried mostly the effective/cheap beacons and won only 260 extra EC.
Will probably end with 234 stafs (may be 1 more) and far away from the 260. So your expected to reach is far to bold statement IMO.

You saying that you didn't get to 260 says nothing on the statistics over the entire playerbase.

And if you read my original post you can see that I said that if you can acquire 5700 EC from quest and pickups, only then are you expected to reach 260 score. This expected score also means that around 50% of those players would still not reach 260, because expectation is an average, and not a certainty. Also my original post commented that it 5700 is unattainable from quests and pickups alone. One would have to buy EC, or spend diamonds on it, to even expect reaching a score of 260, and of course it is not certain even then.

Of course this expectation assumes the following strategy 23 > 22 > 75 > 29 > 79 > 58 > 48 > 60 > 33. And with this strategy you almost never pick the last four beacons.
 

CrazyWizard

Well-Known Member
Very simple, i think i can say i'm very active at beta.
Picked up many times a day EC around the city, finished all quests, tried mostly the effective/cheap beacons and won only 260 extra EC.
Will probably end with 234 stafs (may be 1 more) and far away from the 260. So your expected to reach is far to bold statement IMO.
I think many think you need 360, I made the same mistake to. I did not see that the last 2 are also gained on the questline
 

Aexilius

Member
And winning less currency will make players further away and less like to spend the diamonds.


You are much closer than I am. I've tended to finish with diamonds when I'm that close. This is just too far.


Didn't think of it before but you could be onto something. Last year I calculated that with all quest completed and a decent pickup rate you're expected to win around 280 points, and only about 5% of players that did that would not get to 260. This year it seems that the expected score is just below 260(depending on how much EC you've managed to get from pickups), so more players will be inclined to buy EC to get their complete set.
 
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Lovec Krys

Well-Known Member
Not sure how much this will change, but 20h before the event's end, you need to be in silver to get the full set.
1643285790423.png
 

Biloutte91

Well-Known Member
in silver league this is this:

1643286577656.png
and here:
1643286672124.png


i have this bat.

but in the prizes this is this

1643286608078.png


I have not :( So, why the same in the silver leaague and the "160" prize ?
 

DeletedUser3726

Guest
That's pretty good winnings. One city has finished out at 240 and the other at 210. I used the same strategy, stuck to 23, 75, & 79 beacons (in that order of preference). The difference in outcomes is purely due to winnings. The 240 city will cost me $35NZD to complete, the 210 will cost $90NZD. Neither are worth it IMO.
According to the league, 210 is where 50% of players are at and only 5% have made it to 260. At a minimum 50% should be able to get 260 without paying.
Hello dear moderator who edited my post. Can you please give me a hint as to what the swear word was that I used? I can't for the life of me remember and I'd like to avoid using whatever word it is in the future. Thank you kindly.
 

DeletedUser3726

Guest
My wording may have been a bit strange. I meant that if you collect 5700 EC (not counting EC won back), you are expected to win enough EC back to score 260.

You're offered 23 beacon on average every 4th spin, 22 beacon every 4th spin, and 75 and 79 beacons have EV of 22 and 22.3 and you get them every spin (excluding those when you're at 18 or 19 points) Your EV is even better when you're at 18 and 19 because you are more likely to be offered 22 and 23 beacons.

It can happen that you're offered 33 58 60 when you're at 18, but it's not that common, and you can play around landing on 18. When you're at 19 you are certain to be offered 22 or 23.

The mentioned strategy basically pics 22, 23, 75 each 25% of the time, and 79 and 29 12.5% of the time. If you calculate it you see that you spend a bit below 22 EC/point on average.
Thank you kindly for explaining :)
 

Martia

Well-Known Member
I just managed to get the full set because I did win 150 scrolls when I spend my last event currency from the quest today. I have one full ashen phoenix + a small egg, did pick up the event currency minimum three times per day and used the cheapest chests (22, 23,75,79).
But again I was not that lucky winning extra currency (besides today).
 

Biloutte91

Well-Known Member
The "progress bar" was complete and I haven't made any encounters since this morning. I just had to do the two buildings level 5 and +
 
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