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Discussion The Forbidden Ruins

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
Arthus said:
It's not connected to any of these screenshots, next scheduled event is Amuni/archeology themed.
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And everything in this game is subject to change. From what has been said by some of the folks who dig into the data, there are things that have been in the files for years that we have still not gotten in the game. All Inno has to do is go in and change the dates for the event and it might start months from now instead of weeks. Besides, nothing in this game is officially scheduled because Inno refuses to give us an in-game event schedule.
 

Aexilius

Member
Eudaemonia said:
Even completing the event building is most likely going to require purchasing event currency by the looks of it.
The complete set requires 260 staves which will cost anywhere from 5720 - 7500 event currency. I'm estimating 3750 from quests, 630 from daily gift and 400 from pick ups. That still leaves players a 1-3k event currency short.
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My simulations show that with 5700 SK earned (not won in chests) you only get your expected score just above 260, this still means that 50% of people won't reach that score. Even more considering that people will get nowhere near 5700 SK.

I remember doing the same calculations last year and with the amount of currency I've won from quests and pickups, and I calculated an average score of around 280, and only 5% of players would not get to 260 with all quests completed and decent pickup rates.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
Aexilius said:
My simulations show that with 5700 SK earned (not won in chests) you only get your expected score just above 260, this still means that 50% of people won't reach that score. Even more considering that people will get nowhere near 5700 SK.

I remember doing the same calculations last year and with the amount of currency I've won from quests and pickups, and I calculated an average score of around 280, and only 5% of players would not get to 260 with all quests completed and decent pickup rates.
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Simulating opening 260 of the 22-cost chests for 260 staffs is a total of 5720 SK. That is the bare minimum of SK needed for a full set.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
SoggyShorts said:
No idea, I thought it was somewhat linear though or could at least be estimated within a couple points. (I'm not doing the event on Beta so I don't know)
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It is, but with one day less than normal, 22 and not 23, I am not sure if the values are off by one or two from past events. I need to go hit up a list that has all the quest values listed and do some adding. Speaking of one day less, unless they adjusted all the rewards up a little to compensate, that means one day less of SK, or about 110 less, but need the same amount for all prizes.
 
Bor de Wolf 1965

Bor de Wolf 1965

Well-Known Member
Lets try and do some calculations.
Quests SK=3854
daily reward of 30 SK times 23 days = 690
I noticed I get some new SP in my town every 40 minutes so that will be 24/2*3=36 a day *23 days = 828
(I know you will be sleeping but during that time the SK still drops and you can get up to 3 SK for 1 drop that is why I will keep the number 828)
now you can get a total amount of 3854+690+828=5372
The difference between bare minimum needed and the amount you can get is 5720-5372=348
I guess everyone will get enough extra SK from opening the chests to hit the 260 mark.

The biggest problem is just having enough time to pick up enough SK around your town.
And yes I have a lot of spare time to waist due to the lockdowns here in the Netherlands.
And I teach people from 50+ to about 85 how to work with a windows computer and/or an android phone/tablet. So I order 30 tons of patience every year. just to help me trough the lesson hours they have.
 
edeba

edeba

Well-Known Member
Bor de Wolf 1965 said:
I noticed I get some new SP in my town every 40 minutes so that will be 24/2*3=36 a day *23 days = 828
(I know you will be sleeping but during that time the SK still drops and you can get up to 3 SK for 1 drop that is why I will keep the number 828)
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Subtract more. It is more like every hour. I've seen it come as fast as 40 minutes, but also nothing for over an hour. When people worked on counting for 24 hours, it worked out to once an hour.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
Lelanya said:
The values are projected to be 63, 63 64 and 64.
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So say 3790, +/- 2 or 3, from the 78 quests. 660 from 22 daily 30s, 440 from 20 spawns per day for a fairly active player and not factoring in the ones that are worth 2 or 3, instead of 1, plus the 100 SK each city starts with, for a total of about 4990. Toss in an extra 5 per day from spawns worth more than 1, or for collecting more than 20 a day, for another 110, making a total of about 5100. And add another 100+ for the people with a fully evolved Ashen Phoenix and you are up to about 5200 SK, maybe a bit more for those extra lucky with the spawns.

This leaves anyone well short of the bare minimum of 5720 SK needed. But that is based on somehow getting 260 of the 22-cost beacons in a row, which no one would do anyway because it does not have extra SK as a prize. Using the average I posted several pages back of opening 6 of the 75s and one of the 48s per grand prize, for a cost of 498 per prize, or 6474 SK for 13 grand prizes. Opening two 22s and/or 23s instead of 48s saves a few, as does opening a few of them in place of a 75 here and there, can get that down to 6400 needed, or maybe a little less.

And that makes a deficit of between 1100 and 1200 SK, plus more for those without the Ashen, that needs to be won from the beacons or bought with diamonds/money to get the full set.

And regarding this:

Bor de Wolf 1965 said:
I noticed I get some new SP in my town every 40 minutes
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I have noticed a lot of inconsistency in the spawn rate this time, but it is definitely not every 40 minutes. Sometimes I go into my city after three hours and there are the expected 3 spawns to collect, and sometimes I have gone in and found 4 or 5, so the old timing of one spawn every 60 minutes is not correct any more. Even with a slightly sped up spawning, maybe add another 5 per day, or another 110, and you still need to win 1000+ SK to have a chance at the complete set.

Also, when taking this to Live, add 50 for the city that gets the newsletter, because starting amount is reduced to 50 from 100, but you get the 100 from the newsletter, and any cities without the newsletter lose 50 from these totals and increases the amount needed in winnings.

I still feel like I am missing something because I have won 730 SK so far and it looks like I still need to win another 450 to get the full set. But I did get stuck several times having to open the more expensive beacons. For example, having to pick between 29, 60, and 79. So I could have easily driven my amount needed up by that extra 100 SK through poor beacon choices.

Edit: I knew I was missing something. I am not exactly two grand prizes away. I have 6 staffs toward the 12th one, so that 125+ SK already spent gets me back in line with needing 1000-1100 total SK won for a complete set.
 

Enevhar Aldarion

Well-Known Member
Lelanya said:
So what would be the point of playing this event, if it's rigged against us?
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Every single event for maybe two years now, that uses the 3 chest/beacon system had needed about 1000 event currency won back in order to complete an evolving building or building set.
 
Laurelin-Beta

Laurelin-Beta

Well-Known Member
Bor de Wolf 1965 said:
The difference between bare minimum needed and the amount you can get is 5720-5372=348 / I guess everyone will get enough extra SK from opening the chests to hit the 260 mark.
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I have played in Events where I have won no extra Event Currency at all. In fact, I typically win so little Event Currency (I have never won more than a few hundred) that I decided after perhaps half-a-dozen Events to completely ignore the random chances of winning back extra Currency and instead to open chests solely on the basis of their face value. While mathematicians will probably disagree with my choice, I would always prefer a certain result, even if less impressive, over the purely random possibility of a better or worse outcome, amongst which is the chance to win nothing at all in return for spending greater amounts. I don't like uncertainty in any sphere, and especially not in a hobby-level game.

The above is merely anectodal, of course, but still : while winning enough extra Event Currency may be statistically probable when averaging results across a large number of players, the fact that each player opens so few chests individually, together with the fact that chests are presented on a [semi-]random basis to each player and the fact that the chances to win Event Currency vary from chest to chest (and aren't very high chances even in the best case), means that there will certainly be players who don't win enough extra Currency to earn a full Set... although there will also, of course, be others who win far more extra Currency than they need. I've always thought that this system is fatally flawed and poorly conceived (well, if not regarded from the point of view of the company selling extra Event Currency, of course...).

In my opinion, random variation (of a reasonable nature) can add interesting variety to otherwise potentially tedious and often-repeated elements (notably combat) in any game, and/or to the results of minor, frequently repeated and/or optional in-game features (e.g. Raid loot in an MMORPG), but the awarding of important/non-repeated (and in some cases near-essential, or at least extremely advantageous) major Event prizes, decisive amounts of Event Currency, major Spire prizes, etc. via random allocation is Elvenar's worst feature. It creates not only a wide discrepancy of practical outcome between players who put in a similar or even identical amount of effort, but also causes unnecessary inter-player strife - or at the very least envy, since most humans are not purely selfless. I would say that none of these can be argued to be desirable outcomes for players per se, whether or not they drive revenue for Inno (as I expect they do).

Enevhar Aldarion said:
Every single event for maybe two years now, that uses the 3 chest/beacon system had needed about 1000 event currency won back in order to complete an evolving building or building set.
Click to expand...
I don't have the same recollection. I've been playing for something over 3½ years, and while I do recall [a couple of] the (very) 'old-style' Events featuring three Grand Prizes, with the third being almost always unattainable without paying for extra Event Currency (although that said, the other two Grand Prizes - which could be obtained by any reasonably active player for free - were typically pretty impressive on their own, and the third was never actually required in order to make the other two definitely useful/desirable enough to place in one's City, unlike most of the more recent Sets and Evolving Buildings), I also remember the (less) 'old-style' Events between then and about a year (or a bit more) ago.

In most of the Events over the past 14 months or so, I've managed either to win all Set buildings or to acquire 9 Artifacts to fully evolve the Grand Prize building (whichever applied), although after Artifacts were added to Fellowship Adventures, and with my Event playstyle remaining the same, I've found it increasingly difficult to achieve the full 9 Artifacts without using at least one of the subsequent FA's Artifacts as well - to the point where I had to buy 500 Event Currency to fully evolve the Boblin's Express Service building, seeing as there was a high chance of no FA following the main Event on Live Servers. To judge by the progress of the current Event (in which I am at the Daily Locked Quest stage on Live), and assuming that there is not a radical change in how much Event Currency I will win by random chance (I've yet to open any chests due to entering a new Chapter), I will need to buy at least twice as much extra Event Currency this time in order to obtain a full Set - and that's being optimistic.

I perceive a definite creep towards the full completion of Events actually requiring at least some Diamond and/or real money expenditure by the large majority of players (most of whom are less active in-game than Forum participants) - especially since the introduction of the paid-for 'Royal Prizes'.

I find this both discouraging and unnecessary, considering Inno's gaming industry statements that Elvenar already produces a very high rate of return.
 
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Prueba2

Well-Known Member
Not sure if this has already been asked before, but it seems strange that two set building with the same size (3x2) have different set bonus:
Mystical Dreams (Amuni) base 4000 elixir +4000 elixir (1st link) +4000 elixir (2nd link)
Enchanted Crops (Amuni) base 4000 dust +2000 dust (1st link) +4000 dust (2nd link)
 
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