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Spire squad size calc - we need your data!

maxiqbert

Well-Known Member
Not bad, pretty close again ;)
sorry, i made a mistake, and corrected it
now it's a bit less good. Still reasonable but not excellent IMHO (4.5% error isn't bad, but it feels like an error)

for the sake of it, I calculated the SS0 from iteration 1 model : 975. So the new model is a LOT better!

edit 2 : my guess is the -22 represents something variable instead of fixed. Don't ask me what, though lol.
Maybe you get a discount for each star missing on your troops?
 
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MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member
now it's a bit less good. Still reasonable but not excellent IMHO (4.5% error isn't bad, but it feels like an error)

for the sake of it, I calculated the SS0 from iteration 1 model : 975. So the new model is a LOT better!
17 points error is well within the average error for this model. Iteration 1 would never work for chapter 5 city, it was meant as an approximation for end of chapter 15 cities only ;)
 

justpeeking

Well-Known Member
I tried to check your formula on my live city, but either I missed something or it does not work for me.
Here are the variables (and some reference to check if I am correct):
T = 408 (digged from dev tools as Karvest suggested)
P = 13 (next premium should cost 4600 diamond)
S = 2811 (upright corner of army camp window)
V = 61 (55 + 6 from start)
A = 132 (from E.architect)

Formula (converted to excel):
=POWER(1,004;G87)*(2,45*H87-0,004*I87+3,45*J87+0,01*K87*(0,66*H87-0,01*I87+0,965*J87+37,5)-22)
(G = T; H = P; ...)

Result is 1583
Actual SSS0 is 1208

Any feedback?
 

justpeeking

Well-Known Member
not better luck with my beta city

T = 70
P = 0
S = 114
V = 19
A = 20

According to excel SSS0 is 71
Actual SSS0 is 46
 

MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member
I tried to check your formula on my live city, but either I missed something or it does not work for me.
Here are the variables (and some reference to check if I am correct):
T = 408 (digged from dev tools as Karvest suggested)
P = 13 (next premium should cost 4600 diamond)
S = 2811 (upright corner of army camp window)
V = 61 (55 + 6 from start)
A = 132 (from E.architect)

Formula (converted to excel):
=POWER(1,004;G87)*(2,45*H87-0,004*I87+3,45*J87+0,01*K87*(0,66*H87-0,01*I87+0,965*J87+37,5)-22)
(G = T; H = P; ...)

Result is 1583
Actual SSS0 is 1208

Any feedback?
As I don't know the name of your live city, I have to guess here, but I don't think you're using the model correctly. Regular squad size indicates you're somewhere in chapters 12-16; T value, assuming done correctly, points to chapter 15. With that, V value is definitely incorrect, you're likely forgetting research expansions (V = base 6 + province expansions + research expansions). In chapter 15 you've likely placed up to 45-47 research expansions, for real V being about 106-108.

With that setup (fairly common for chapter 15), I definitely don't believe actual SSSo - you're likely looking at enemy SSS (SSSe) rather than SSSo (own) at 1st encounter. You actual SSSo in this case would be about 2718, and if you plug in updated V you may find out that you're much closer to your actual SSSo ;)

Unless, of course, you're indeed running chapter 15 on half the expansions than the most compact chapter 15 cities that I've seen. In this case, I am definitely interested in your data ;)

T = 70
P = 0
S = 114
V = 19
A = 20

According to excel SSS0 is 71
Actual SSS0 is 46
That's a known thing (to me), the formula is not that close (relatively speaking) for the tiniest of cities, and your beta city is as small as they get to get Spire access.
 

maxiqbert

Well-Known Member
not better luck with my beta city

T = 70
P = 0
S = 114
V = 19
A = 20

According to excel SSS0 is 71
Actual SSS0 is 46
according to elvenstats your beta city has 26 expansions (v=26 then)
IMHO, it's worth checking your other values too (your T value seems too high for 3rd level)
 

justpeeking

Well-Known Member
As I don't know the name of your live city, I have to guess here, but I don't think you're using the model correctly. Regular squad size indicates you're somewhere in chapters 12-16; T value, assuming done correctly, points to chapter 15. With that, V value is definitely incorrect, you're likely forgetting research expansions (V = base 6 + province expansions + research expansions). In chapter 15 you've likely placed up to 45-47 research expansions, for real V being about 106-108.

With that setup (fairly common for chapter 15), I definitely don't believe actual SSSo - you're likely looking at enemy SSS (SSSe) rather than SSSo (own) at 1st encounter. You actual SSSo in this case would be about 2718, and if you plug in updated V you may find out that you're much closer to your actual SSSo ;)

Unless, of course, you're indeed running chapter 15 on half the expansions than the most compact chapter 15 cities that I've seen. In this case, I am definitely interested in your data ;)


That's a known thing (to me), the formula is not that close (relatively speaking) for the tiniest of cities, and your beta city is as small as they get to get Spire access.
Thanks for checking my calculations, I felt I had made some errors.
You are right I misunderstood the V value and did not add the research expansions. Also I thought that there is an 0 after SSS rather then an o, so I took the SSSe value.
Therefore my input data for my live town is:
T = 408
M = 366 (if I counted correctly; I found 42 non-mandatory research in my tree; there are 43 until the end of chapter 15, but the last 2 columns are not yet accessible, so I have one less non-mandatory accessible)
P =13
V = 107
S= 2811

model 3 result is 2690
model 4 result is 2608 ( formula used: POWER(1,00415;M86)*(0,003*A86+1)*(2,75*P86+3,67*V86-18) )

actual SSSo is 2720

so model 3 is pretty close; model 4 is not really, maybe there is a problem around mandatory definition?

Regarding my beta city:
T = 70
M = 64
P = 0
V = 26
S = 114

Model 3 = 105
Model 4 = 107
actual SSSo = 102
model 3 is still slightly better
 

MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member
M = 366 (if I counted correctly; I found 42 non-mandatory research in my tree; there are 43 until the end of chapter 15, but the last 2 columns are not yet accessible, so I have one less non-mandatory accessible)
M value does not look correct. Just use the table in my post - you started chapter 15 with 355 or 353 (human vs elf). There are 28 mandatory techs in chapter 15, and if you're around the last 2 columns this means that your total M is ~375-380. M=376 produces SSSo=2719.

For the small city, as I mentioned, the model as outlined starts to breaks down around SSSo 100. Your city is around that edge, and it is pretty close (unlike even smaller cities). I suspect there is an explicit bonus adjustment for the tiniest of cities.
 

maxiqbert

Well-Known Member
Some questions about M :
1) are the non mandatory city expansions really excluded?
2) are the non mandatory culture thingies really excluded? (for instance at fairies level "trees and lampions")
3) are the odd non mandatory invited ressource production thingies really excluded (for instance at chap9, "steel grating site")?
4) are the techs leading to a non mandatory tech only also non mandatory? (for instance squad size 16 leading to non mandatory city expansion 22)
 

MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member
1) are the non mandatory city expansions really excluded?
2) are the non mandatory culture thingies really excluded? (for instance at fairies level "trees and lampions")
3) are the odd non mandatory invited ressource production thingies really excluded (for instance at chap9, "steel grating site")?
Yes.

4) are the techs leading to a non mandatory tech only also non mandatory? (for instance squad size 16 leading to non mandatory city expansion 22)
Probably no. Given that I know of only one example of that (the one you listed), and I don't have any examples of cities taking one but not another, it is hard to tell. The easiest implementation would be to consider SSU 16 mandatory as it only needs to look at direct descendants, so that's what I went with. Regardless, difference in 1 M is hard to establish unless doing a targeted experiment much later in the game. I.e. not unlocking SSU 22, wait until 3K+ in SSSo (so probably chapter 15-16), then just take SSU 16 only and do nothing else for one week and see if SSSo changes or not. I assume it will.
 

Angedev

Well-Known Member
Hi, good job here! I've just tried it with 2 cities and results look almost perfect :)

Model: 4292,78
Real: 4294

Model: 967,92
Real: 966

Thank you for your job :)
 

MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member

Angedev

Well-Known Member
It looks really good, thanks! :)
Screenshot_20200527-080313.png
 

MinMax Gamer

Well-Known Member
Well, I did not expect to receive enough of small-city data for quite some time, but one of the players just dropped a ton of it right into my hands. With that, I believe we have the final model, or at least as close as it gets. There are no outstanding issues as of now, so this might be it.

So tune in for a season finale (probably), where we unveil the undeniable proof that this formula is correct ;)

Model v5.0: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v5-0/

And here is a Google Sheets calculator for the Model v5.0. You'll need to copy it in order to be able to edit. You can check out for yourself on how close you are ;)
 

CrazyWizard

Well-Known Member
Well, I did not expect to receive enough of small-city data for quite some time, but one of the players just dropped a ton of it right into my hands. With that, I believe we have the final model, or at least as close as it gets. There are no outstanding issues as of now, so this might be it.

So tune in for a season finale (probably), where we unveil the undeniable proof that this formula is correct ;)

Model v5.0: https://minmaxgame.com/spire-squad-size-model-v5-0/

And here is a Google Sheets calculator for the Model v5.0. You'll need to copy it in order to be able to edit. You can check out for yourself on how close you are ;)

You arent done yet ;)
How does SSS relate to Coins, Supplies, T1 goods, T2 Goods ect?
 
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