That is a very different result than here:

http://crazywizard.info/en/event_probability_chart.html
How did you arrive at your numbers

@Jackluyt?

crazywizards list is from the winter event.

back then, there were 4128 + 1225 + ~1225 flakes available (if you count with 35 spawning flakes per day and catch virtually all of em).

this time, there are 3338 + 1085 + ~1085 beets.

so, it's much less.

and he takes into account, that there is a certain chance of getting a second round. since the chance is different in all three boxes, it's safe to multiply the beet-number with 1,25, just to take those effects into account. at this point, you get something at 6800, maybe even 7000 beets out of it. 6300 would be closer to reality for somebody who is working, because that person might miss some beets during daytime and nighttime.

6800 beets means 49 large chests, the "win beets chances" are already taken into account (he did not take them into account, since he assumes a higher number for total chests (including bonus-chests)... 980 rock candy is enough to get the first and the second prize, the third one is essentially out of reach.

but, the third prize is essentially worthless, if you take into account, that the clever use of the beets to gain interesting daily prizes