Easter event set nearly impossible?

[SoggyShorts]

EDIT: I didn't even notice they changed the % chance to win free essence in each box by removing runes.
If anyone would care to share a new calculation, feel free.

@balderdinger on US live posted an interesting bit of information:

Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
------
4263 ess total

So if you use
560 ess on getting a lighthouse (3 large eggs)
560 ess on getting a pavillion (3 large eggs)

That leaves you with
3143 ess remaining

If you spend all 3143 ess on double days (which assumes the last day is a double day) you have less than a 2% chance of getting the third grand prize.

Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances down to well under 1%

Calculator: http://www.ballio.com/winter.php

 

[Karvest]

Even if you open all boxes on double days, you won't get 100% chance to get 3GP, not talking about daily's...

 

[SoggyShorts]

Even if you open all boxes on double days, you won't get 100% chance to get 3GP

Exactly, more like 46%, not 100%, and that is zero other prizes including the daily sets.

Compared to winter where I got all 3 GP, and 8 other set pieces, and a bunch of instants on double days, this is kinda sad.

 

[Elrondriel]

You mean: nearly impossible for free

 

[Heymrdiedier]

EDIT: I didn't even notice they changed the % chance to win free essence in each box by removing runes.
If anyone would care to share a new calculation, feel free.

@balderdinger on US live posted an interesting bit of information:

Essence gains:
2788 Main quest
875 Daily quests
600 collected ess (assuming 1 per hour)
------
4263 ess total

So if you use
560 ess on getting a lighthouse (3 large eggs)
560 ess on getting a pavillion (3 large eggs)

That leaves you with
3143 ess remaining

If you spend all 3143 ess on double days (which assumes the last day is a double day) you have less than a 2% chance of getting the third grand prize.

Note: the above only gives you 1 of each building, which is not enough to get both the KP bonus and the broken shard. To get both, you need another lighthouse or pavillion, which drops your chances down to well under 1%

Calculator: http://www.ballio.com/winter.php

Im not getting this post. How can an increased chance of getting essence back, mean less chance of get the final end prize.
Your chances should be higher now, or am i missing something obvious here ?

 

[SoggyShorts]

Im not getting this post. How can an increased chance of getting essence back, mean less chance of get the final end prize.
Your chances should be higher now, or am i missing something obvious here ?

You are correct, the increased chance is not factored into my calculations because I didn't know about it. That is why I added the "EDIT" at the top.

The decreased overall chance of getting all 3 GP compared to previous events is due simply to having fewer quests, and the slight increase of getting ess back more often does not cover this.

 

[Karvest]

Anyway chance of getting full set is too low.