Not a Bug 2.5% for Chicken Glade?

[Elevenar]

Game version: v1.34-(490141f33) (2017-07-12 8:28)
Game world: BETA
Browser/IOS/Android + version: Google Chrome Version 59.0.3071.115 x64
Flash Player version: 26.0.0.137
Operating System: Windows 10 Insider
Screen resolution: 1920x1080
Account name: Elevenar
Humans or Elves: humans for sure

Reproducibility: 5?

Quest title: The March of the Herds - Daily Exclusive "Chicken Glade"

Current situation:
I tried over 20 times to get the Chicken Glade today. Finally, I got ONE. Likelihood "is" 25%, but feels more like 2.5%.

Expected situation:
I expect(ed) to get more than one, with a probability of 25. I heard from my members, that they also tried hard to get other rewards before. So perhaps there really is something wrong with the mulitpliers for the likelihood.
(And yes, I know it's not guaranteed to get one with only 4 tries ... but >20?)

Reproduction Steps
1. Collect gazillion of carrots (sugar beets)
2. Try (hard) to get the Chicken Glade today

Screenshots of the bug:

 

[Dony]

its called luck

 

[DeletedUser]

I got 2 with 4 tries from the bronze chest, guess I'm very lucky.

 

[Elrondriel]

Statistical probabilities do apply to the full entity of attempts to win a prize, i.e. the given percentages will be confirmed only on a huge number of user attempts, as an average. In this kind of "randomness setting" here, it seems more usefull to invest in a high number of tries instead in a high individual probability (which "resets" for each new try). So, my recommendation is to better use bronze chests.

 

[Kersepitje]

Sorry but this is not a bug, unless everyone has the same experience. but as others allready posted, some have had a 50% result

 

[ophion]

When something says the likelihood of winning a prize is 25% you should expect to win the prize after four attempts. If after 6 attempts and you still haven't won the prize then it should be revised.
They can get out of it by saying...the "likelihood" of winning is 25%...but we all know that's a cop out for saying prob'ly not...but that's really disappointing for players that have saved up expecting to get something for their efforts.

 

[SoggyShorts]

When something says the likelihood of winning a prize is 25% you should expect to win the prize after four attempts.

That's not how odds work. Otherwise you'd also have to say that the first 3 of 4 tries have 0% chance.
If the odds are 25%, then you "should expect" to win about 1 billion in 4 billion. A sample size of 4 or even 20 is not nearly enough.
Think about flipping a coin twice. You should get one heads and one tails, but if you get heads twice, does that mean the coin is broken?

I wouldn't be against removing the %chance system altogether though, and replacing it with a simple cost one (perhaps even with diminishing returns?)

 

[Elevenar]

I had more luck on that stupid tree yesterday. Won 2 out of 3 tries.

 

[DeletedUser]

I had more luck on that stupid tree yesterday. Won 2 out of 3 tries.

That's a lot of more luck. I had to try 10 times for 1 blue tree

 

[DeletedUser1681]

...
I wouldn't be against removing the %chance system altogether though, and replacing it with a simple cost one (perhaps even with diminishing returns?)

If I read your suggestion right, like a event building costing so and so many beets etc. then that's what I've been thinking. I mean that spells, relics etc etc I can get other times, but during an event I but effort into getting something special and I don't really want it to be just a "chance" to get something special.

 

[SoggyShorts]

If I read your suggestion right, like a event building costing so and so many beets etc. then that's what I've been thinking. I mean that spells, relics etc etc I can get other times, but during an event I but effort into getting something special and I don't really want it to be just a "chance" to get something special.

I know not all players are in the same situation I am, but relics are just a terrible "reward" for me. Max boosts, and active in tournaments with a level 2 MA means I have unlimited relics already.
So yeah I'd rather simply pay than roll the dice.

Edit: In theory I could open boxes to get relics to help complete "gain xx relics" quests,but I wouldn't choose to waste event resources unless the building was also something I wanted and it never seems to work out that way