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Didn't think of it before but you could be onto something. Last year I calculated that with all quest completed and a decent pickup rate you're expected to win around 280 points, and only about 5% of players that did that would not get to 260. This year it seems that the expected score is just...

You saying that you didn't get to 260 says nothing on the statistics over the entire playerbase. And if you read my original post you can see that I said that if you can acquire 5700 EC from quest and pickups, only then are you expected to reach 260 score. This expected score also means that...

I am not saying that anything is certain. All I am saying is that you are expected to reach 260 score. Of course it can happen that you win no EC back, but it is very unlikely. And regarding your claim that I "cannot say that the average is below the number it cost", of course I can, that is...

My wording may have been a bit strange. I meant that if you collect 5700 EC (not counting EC won back), you are expected to win enough EC back to score 260. You're offered 23 beacon on average every 4th spin, 22 beacon every 4th spin, and 75 and 79 beacons have EV of 22 and 22.3 and you get...

The math is not off, there is a strategy that spends a bit below 22 EC on average. That takes in account the chances of getting EC back from beacons. I am not saying that you're certain to get 260 with 5700 EC, I'm just saying that you are expected to. The simulation still shows that 49% of...

quests (with ashen phoenix): around 3920 daily: 22*30 = 660 collects: lets say 25*22 = 550 (this really depends, if you can collect only twice a day it will be a lot less) quest milestones: 300 free (email gift): 100 TOTAL 5530

My simulations show that with 5700 SK earned (not won in chests) you only get your expected score just above 260, this still means that 50% of people won't reach that score. Even more considering that people will get nowhere near 5700 SK. I remember doing the same calculations last year and...